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Much of New Jersey is now under a hurricane watch, with hurricane conditions possible in at least some areas within 48 hours, according to forecasters.
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible in the watch area, according to the National Hurricane Center. A watch is issued 48 hours before the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds, which are 39 to 73 mph.
The watch covers Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Salem, Cumberland and Camden counties, according to the National Weather Service Mount Holly Office.
And Hurricane Irene could have a devastating impact in New Jersey, the state climatologist said today.
If Irene “moved right over New Jersey, we could be just devastated,” said David A. Robinson, the New Jersey state climatologist at Rutgers University.
Gov. Chris Christie today declared a state of emergency in New Jersey, clearing the way for state officials to deploy resources, including the National Guard, and other resources to counties and towns.
Christie is considering mandatory evacuations, but he’s asking people to not go to the Jersey Shore this weekend. People in rental properties should leave today or Friday, according to Christie.
A mandatory evacuation will take effect at 8 a.m. Friday on Long Beach Island, municipal and Ocean County emergency officials said this afternoon.
Harvey Cedars police Chief Thomas Preiser said information will be broadcast on local cable television channels 22 and 39, and streamed on the island's tourism information radio, Long Beach Island Information Radio at 1650 on the AM dial.
More information will be issued on those media as it becomes available, and emergency officials are asking that residents do not call police departments except for emergencies. Residents should secure loose items around their homes, such as outdoor furniture, grills and other equipment, that may be blown about by the wind or floated on flood tides and cause damage to other homes.
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Asbury Park Mayor Ed Johnson today urged residents to evacuate to an inland location before noon Saturday and to get that plan going now as Hurricane Irene approaches.
Gary Szatkowski, meteorologist in charge of the weather service’s Mount Holly office, agreed with Robinson that Irene could be devastating in New Jersey.
“Again, the track of the storm has shifted closer to the coast, so we’re looking at the potential for sustained hurricane-force winds along the New Jersey coast,’ Szatkowski said.
“We’re looking at the (potential) for record coastal flooding along the coast as the storm surge comes along with the hurricane,” he said.
He’s most worried about the high tide on Sunday morning, he said.
The high tide in the ocean at Seaside Heights will be at 7:11 a.m. Sunday, according to the National Ocean Service.
Even more serious is the rainfall threat, Szatkowski said.
Very heavy rainfall of up to a foot over inland areas would produce “catastrophic flooding,” he said. “It’s a very, very serious situation.”
The weather service has issued a flood watch for most of New Jersey for Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening.
“Heavy and possibly record-setting rainfall amounts in the Saturday to Sunday timeframe may result in major flooding across New Jersey” and other states, according to the weather service.
People should be completing their pre-storm activities, Szatkowski said, adding that there are many check lists, including one from the American Red Cross.
If and when hurricane watches are issued, people should take appropriate action, he said. “As far as any evacuation, that’s the call of local and county emergency management officials.”
Irene “could be very bad,” Szatkowski said. “If this pans out as the track suggests, this will be the worst storm in anyone’s lifetime in New Jersey.”
Robinson, the climatologist, said perhaps the worst-case scenario would be a Category 2 Irene hugging the New Jersey coast just offshore, with the coast in the eyewall.
That would “put the shoreline in great danger,” and “it would bring exceedingly heavy rain to every area of the state, and it would be near one of the strongest windfields.”
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“That’s a recipe for hundreds of millions of dollars in damage,” he said.
“You have to say that New Jersey’s in the crosshairs,” he said.
Some models suggest that New Jersey could get a foot of rain, possibly causing “disastrous inland flooding, along with disastrous surf and coastal flooding and winds that pull down trees and power lines everywhere in the state,” Robinson said.
“I’m not saying people should panic, but boy if people don’t take heed and people don’t respect the potential of this storm, they’re foolish,” he said.
Aside from New Jersey, “Long Island would take a huge blow and New York City,” he said.
“It’s going to be very interesting to see not if, but when the emergency management officials start talking about evacuations,” he said.
“They can’t wait till midday Saturday,” he said. “They’re going to have to act sooner than that. And it’s a decision no one wants to have to make, but it has profound societal impacts, not just the economy, but safety of people.”
“You want to do it in a manner that does not provide panic, but stresses the importance of paying heed, so it’s a very delicate situation and one that New Jersey hasn’t been faced with in this fashion,” he said.
“This is really serious,” he said of Irene. “Again, the potential consequences are significant.”
An inland track would have less of an impact on the coast, but it could have more of an impact on inland areas, said Jon K. Miller, research assistant professor at Stevens Institute of Technology in Hoboken.
“Just the way the winds circulate, if it comes over land in terms of its coastal impact, flooding and beach erosion and all, that’s a good thing for us,” said Miller, Stevens-Sea Grant coastal processes specialist.
“An inland track would result in winds “kind of blowing parallel to the shore, so it will be pushing the water up and down the coast, but not necessarily at the coast,” Miller said.
If the storm stays over land, the storm surge and waves would be lower, he added.
But that may just bring more rain to inland areas of New Jersey, causing flooding, he said.
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An inland track also means “the strong winds will then be inland, so you’ll have more issues associated with the winds,” he said.
Miller, in an email, said the latest information he had “shows the storm skirting the NJ coast, which actually is pretty bad.”
“The short trip over (North Carolina) is sort of like a speed bump, it will lose some strength and organization, but then it will head back over open water,” he wrote. “Strongest winds are in the eyewall on the right side, which looks to be impacting NJ's coast directly.”
“Also, strongest surge is typically in the (northeast) or upper right quadrant, part of which could impact the NJ coast as well,” he wrote.
“Right now it looks similar to the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, but closer to the NJ coast,” he wrote. “That one caused extensive damage and the highest water levels ever recorded along the NJ coast.”
At 5 p.m. today, Irene was about 830 miles south of Cape May, and heading north-northwest at close to 14 mph, according to the weather service.
The major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph, was a Category 3 storm that may strengthen tonight and Friday, according to the hurricane center.
It was expected to be probably right along the Jersey Shore Sunday morning and afternoon, according to O’Hara, of the weather service.
Todd B. Bates: 732-643-4237;
tbates@njpressmedia.com;
www.twitter.com/ToddBBatesAPP
Contributing: Staff writers Kirk Moore, Nicholas Huba and Nancy Shields and Associated Press reports
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